How unlikely is it that Juan Soto is the first player with 30 homers and 30 steals in the majors this season? "Extremely unlikely" is the obvious answer, but it's not exactly a satisfactory one, so let's try to quantify this, shall we?

Soto's 30-30 season is also his first-ever 30-steal season, so that's already pretty unlikely. Though that's not as rare as you might think – since 2001, there have been 25 different players to produce a 30-30 season, and nine of them never had more than 30 steals in another season. Of course, I don't know how illuminating that stat actually is – Mookie Betts only has one 30-steal season for his career, but he has 196 for his career; Francisco Lindor similarly only has one 30-steal season to date, but he came one steal short of going 30-30 last season

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