A tropical wave rolling off the coast of Africa is catching my attention this week.

While the disturbance is still poorly organized, it has the ingredients to slowly become better defined. The National Hurricane Center gives it a low chance of development over the next 48 hours, but by the 5- to 7-day window, odds climb to around 40 percent as it moves west across warm Atlantic waters.

Right now, the system’s biggest hurdle is the hostile environment surrounding it — pockets of dry, dusty Saharan air and moderate wind shear that are keeping thunderstorms from consolidating. If the wave can dodge the dry air and find a more moist, calm pocket of atmosphere, it could gradually spin up into a tropical depression. Computer models are split, with some keeping it weak and others hinting at slo

See Full Page