Elon Musk may be trying to pivot Tesla Inc. away from electric vehicles and toward humanoid robots, but to skeptical investors there’s no hiding from its stagnating sales and eye-watering stock market valuation that leaves little room for error.

Eager to transform the carmaker into an artificial intelligence powerhouse, Mr. Musk earlier this month declared on his social-media platform X that about “80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus,” referring to the company’s robot initiative. But that’s for the future. In the here and now, Tesla’s 2025 earnings are expected to sink nearly 30%, while its robotaxi business is still years from turning a profit and faces stiff competition from Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo, among others.

“You can pin any kind of valuation to robots at this point,” said Thomas T

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