San Diego Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez (98) in action against the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park in San Diego, California.

The San Diego Padres (83-69) and the New York Mets (78-74) wrap up a 3-game series Thursday at Citi Field in Queens, New York. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Padres vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 4-1

These teams play the rubber game Thursday afternoon at Citi Field. On Tuesday, the Mets posted an 8-3 win as slight favorites (-120) as the Over (8) cashed. On Wednesday, the Padres secured a 7-4 win as moderate underdogs (+120), also as the Over (7.5) connected.

San Diego has won 3 of the past 4 games, while cashing the Over in each of the previous 4 outings. The Padres have averaged 7.5 runs per game (RPG) in the 4-game span, while allowing 5.3 RPG. On Wednesday, RF Fernando Tatis Jr. finished 2-for-3 with a pair of singles, 2 walks and 2 runs scored from the leadoff spot. 3B Manny Machado was the big producer, going 3-for-5 with a homer and 4 RBIs. LF Ramon Laureano socked a solo homer, going 2-for-4.

For New York, 3B Brett Baty collected a double and 2 singles in 4 at-bats, while 1B Pete Alonso had the team's other multi-hit effort, going 2-for-4 with a solo homer. The Mets are still just 2-9 in the past 11 games since Sept. 6, with the Over going 6-2 across the previous 8 contests. New York has a 1 1/2 game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final Wild Card spot.

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Padres at Mets projected starters

RHP Randy Vasquez vs. RHP Jonah Tong

Vasquez (5-6, 3.72 ERA) makes his 25th start and 26th appearance. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 5.2 K/9 through 123 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 6 IP in a 2-0 victory last Thursday vs. Colorado Rockies
  • Last 7 starts: 2-2, 3.55 ERA (33 IP, 13 ER), 7 BB, 22 K, 1.30 WHIP in 7 games (6 starts)
  • 2025 road stats: 3-4, 4.05 ERA (60 IP, 27 ER), 26 BB, 32 K, 1.40 WHIP in 13 games (12 starts)
  • Has never faced Mets

Tong (1-2, 8.49 ERA) makes his fourth career start. He has a 1.71 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 through 11 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 8-3 home loss vs. Texas Rangers Friday
  • 2025 home stats: 1-1, 11.12 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 3 BB, 7 K in 2 starts
  • 22-year-old rookie has never faced Padres

Padres at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:58 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Mets -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-175) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Padres at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 7, Mets 3

Moneyline

The PADRES (+115) are a strong play as short 'dogs on the road in this series finale.

Tong has been terrible for the Mets lately, and he just doesn't look ready for prime time quite yet. Vasquez has never faced the Mets, but he has been in pennant chases before. He'll get the visitors across the line in this finale.

Run line/Against the spread

The Padres +1.5 (-175) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, if you need insurance, and you just cannot trust the visitors. The Padres would be a decent play catching the run and a half, as they're just playing much better baseball than New York lately. However, this is just too expensive.

PASS.

Over/Under

OVER 9 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.

The total has gone high in 6 of the past 8 games for the Mets, while going 2-0-1 in Tong's 3 outings.

The Over is also 4-0 in the past 4 games for the Padres, and these teams have combined for 22 runs, or 11.0 RPG, in the past two outings.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: San Diego Padres at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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