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We officially start week 4 of the 2025 college football season on Thursday night. For the Big 12, the week 4 slate doesn't officially begin until Friday night when Oklahoma State hosts Tulsa. The biggest matchup of the week will feature No. 16 Texas Tech traveling to Salt Lake City to face off with the No. 18 Utah Utes.
We will have plenty on that game in the coming days; our focus shifts to the projections for the offseason. The Utes are among the favorites to play for the conference title and a berth in the College Football Playoff. USA TODAY Sports recently projected them to play in the first round of the CFP. That would be quite the bounce-back for a Utah squad that finished 5-7 and missed the postseason for the first time since 2013, excluding the Covid year.
Here is how Erick Smith of USA TODAY Sports has it projected for 11 of 16 teams in the Big 12:
Utah at Notre Dame in CFP First Round
The Utah Utes are projected to represent the Big 12 in the College Football Playoff. They are one of the remaining undefeated teams in the conference and have a massive test on Saturday when they host Texas Tech. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Utes earn a CFP berth. Devon Dampier is a true dual-threat, and head coach Kyle Whittingham is one of the most consistent head coaches in the game. Drawing Notre Dame would be no small task, but the Irish are currently sitting at 0-2 and have some big matchups coming down the pipe. Games at Arkansas, home against NC State, and USC could keep them out of the CFP, but I wouldn't root against Marcus Freeman if he can fix the defense.
Based on the predictions, the Utes would not advance to the next round of the CFP to face No. 2 Georgia in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Rate Bowl on Dec. 26: Kansas vs Minnesota
The 2025 redemption tour kicked off with a good start, winning the first two games, but a road battle in the border war with Missouri didn't go KU's way. After coming off a bye week, the Jayhawks can jump back into the fray with a win over the West Virginia Mountaineers when they come to recently upgraded David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium on Saturday night. Kansas heading to the Rate Bowl at Chase Field would be a welcome sight after last year's falloff. KU last played in the Rate Bowl in 2023, earning a win to cap off the 9-4 season.
First Responder Bowl on Dec. 26: Vanderbilt vs Texas Tech
A trip to the First Responders Bowl would be a massive disappointment given the aspirations of this season. Texas Tech currently sits 3-0 and faces a major test with a road trip to Salt Lake City on Saturday. This game will be the featured Big Noon Kickoff that will begin at 10 a.m. local time. Quarterback Behren Morton has a lot of confidence, especially in the vertical passing game, which will test the Utes' secondary. The improved defense will find out how much they have improved as they attempt to slow down Devon Dampier. Should Tech win, the next projection should have the Red Raiders in a more prestigious bowl matchup.
Pop-Tarts Bowl on Dec. 27: Georgia Tech vs BYU
The Cougars of BYU have started off with two relatively easy wins over Portland State and Stanford at LaVell Edwards Stadium. After the bye, BYU will take its show on the road against East Carolina before opening Big 12 play at Colorado on Sept. 27. The sudden change at quarterback hasn't tempered expectations, but the Pirates should put up a bigger fight than Stanford. BYU will be tested plenty down the road with games against Utah, Iowa State, and Texas Tech over the next six games.
Texas Bowl on Dec. 27: Baylor vs Texas A&M
This projection would revive the old Southwest and Big 12 Conference rivalry, even if only for one game. These two teams haven't met since the final season in the Big 12 for A&M, in 2011. The Aggies won 55-28. For the Bears, this would be a major step forward after many pundits put head coach Dave Aranda on the hot seat. Sawyer Robertson and Baylor get tested again on Saturday when Arizona State comes to Lane Stadium. With a win, BU could realistically be 5-1 heading into the second half of the schedule.
Independence Bowl on Dec. 30: Houston vs Louisiana Tech
What a difference a year makes for the Houston Cougars. Last season, the Cougs were 3-5 heading into the final month of the season. They finished 1-3 after three straight losses to end the year. With former A&M quarterback Conner Weigman leading the offense, Houston is off to a 3-0 start, including the 36-20 win over Colorado in the Big 12 opener. Willie Fritz and UH are on a bye this week before traveling to Corvallis to face Oregon State. The next major test comes against Texas Tech on Oct. 4.
Alamo Bowl on Dec. 30: Iowa State vs USC
This feels like a matchup of similar team colors. Iowa State has major aspirations this season with its 4-0 start to the year. A postseason matchup against USC sounds like a great way to end the year, but it's probably not the venue that they are envisioning. The 4-0 record does not seem so impressive when you see it was against two struggling Power Four teams, and matchups with South Dakota and Arkansas State. Games against BYU, Arizona State, and TCU in consecutive weeks should give us a better idea of the Cyclones' quality.
Sun Bowl on Dec. 31: SMU vs Arizona
The post-Jedd Fisch era was tough to watch in year one. However, Brent Brennan is providing some hope in year two with a perfect 3-0 start to the season. Quarterback Noah Fifita is looking closer to the version we saw under Fisch. The Wildcats are off this week and preparing for a trip to Ames on Sept. 27. A matchup against SMU would provide a challenge that Brennan and company would welcome.
Holiday Bowl on Jan. 2: NC State vs Arizona State
The Big 12 is back in the Holliday Bowl, at least in this projection. Texas Tech was the last Big 12 team to participate since the bowl tie-in changed to the ACC vs the Pac-12. Ironically enough, that game featured Texas Tech vs Arizona State, and now the Sun Devils could return to the Holliday Bowl for the first time since that 2013 matchup. This would mean that ASU isn't defending its crown as Big 12 champions.
Liberty Bowl on Jan. 2: TCU vs Missouri
The Frogs finished with 9 wins last season, but a trip to the New Mexico Bowl couldn't be what they envisioned as they ran past Louisiana 34-3. Quarterback Josh Hoover is having a good start to the season; if he continues, the sky could be the limit for the Frogs. The next matchup could be the end of a rivalry as we know it when they face SMU. Sonny Dykes is ready to return to the top of the Big 12. But can they fend off some of the top contenders in the conference?
Armed Forces Bowl on Jan. 2: UCF vs Army
After the Gus Bus departed Orlando for Tallahassee, the Knights turned to a familiar face. Scott Frost didn't have any success with his alma mater, but returned to UCF, where he achieved great success. The team is 2-0, but they are still unproven. UNC will provide some challenges, but we truly won't know how good they are until Oct. 4 against Kansas. Participating in the Armed Forces Bowl would be a good start to the second era under Scott Frost.
This article originally appeared on College Sports Wire: Who represents the Big 12 in the CFP? Check out these USA TODAY Sports bowl projections
Reporting by Patrick Conn, College Sports Wire / College Sports Wire
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