LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- It's been a bumpy September for favorites. Underdogs are barking, points are stacking up, and the lines are tighter than a Jeff Brohm play sheet on 4th down.

But we keep plugging away. Last week I barely kept my head above water — 5-4 against the spread, bringing my record to 17-13 on the season — I'm back with a fresh pack of picks.

Let's take a look:

Bowling Green (+26.5) at Louisville, noon, ACC Network (O/U: 50.5)

Pick: Louisville 34, Bowling Green 10

Louisville should take a step forward coming off its bye week. The defense is solid. The offense has had two weeks to clean things up after a shaky finish vs. James Madison. But will it be enough to cover? Bowling Green has covered in its last four games against Power 4 teams and will try to slow the tempo.

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