Martin Lewis has raised concerns that the State Pension could potentially be abolished in favour of means testing. This warning comes as discussions intensify regarding the future of the triple lock system, which guarantees annual increases in the pension. During a recent episode of his podcast, Lewis addressed a question from a 53-year-old caller named John, who inquired about the possibility of the State Pension being scrapped. Lewis replied, "Yes, it is possible," but added that he does not believe it is likely to happen.
Lewis elaborated on the situation, stating, "Parliament is what is called omnicompetent - a technical term meaning parliament can legislate anything it chooses to do. I think the most likely eventuality with the state pension is that the age at which you get it is increased." He predicted that individuals currently aged 18 may not receive their State Pension until they are in their 70s, rather than their late 60s.
He outlined the risks to the State Pension, ranking them by likelihood. The most probable risk, according to Lewis, is an increase in the retirement age. He noted that while the possibility of abolishing the State Pension is unlikely, it cannot be entirely dismissed. "Limited odds, but I wouldn't be bowled off my chair if it were to happen sometime in the next 20-30 years," he stated.
The State Pension age is set to rise from 66 to 67 for those born after April 1960, with this transition expected to be completed by March 2028. Additionally, a further increase to 68 is planned between 2044 and 2046, with discussions about potentially bringing this change forward.
Lewis also highlighted the upcoming 4.7% increase in the State Pension, which is set to take effect next April. This increase is based on the triple lock guarantee, which ensures that pensions rise by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or average earnings growth. The Office for National Statistics recently confirmed the projected rise, which has sparked debate over the sustainability of the triple lock in light of frozen tax thresholds.
He warned that some pensioners may face tax charges next year, stating, "Unless something changes, anyone on the full new state pension with no other income will for the first time pay tax on it." The new State Pension is expected to increase to £12,535 annually, just £35 below the frozen personal allowance. Lewis explained that this means those on the full new State Pension will likely be taxed on their income, as it will exceed the tax-free threshold.
In a post on social media platform X, Lewis detailed the upcoming changes, stating, "The State Pension is set to rise 4.7% next April. The final figure has just come in, for earnings up to July and it's the highest of the three, at 4.7%." He provided specific figures for the new and old State Pension rates, indicating that the full new State Pension will rise from £230.24 to £241.05 per week, while the old State Pension will increase from £176.45 to £184.75 per week.