Australia's ambitious emissions reduction targets are under scrutiny as new modeling from CSIRO indicates they may be difficult to achieve. The government aims for a 62-70% reduction in emissions by 2035 and net zero by 2050. However, experts warn that meeting these goals will require extensive reforestation efforts.

To reach the 2035 target, Australia would need to remove 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This is necessary to offset one-third of the projected 300 million tonnes of emissions expected by that year. Achieving this level of carbon removal would necessitate planting new forests covering at least 10 million hectares, roughly half the size of Victoria. By 2050, the required carbon removal could increase to 150 million tonnes annually, demanding 15 million hectares of forest, more than twice the size of Tasmania.

Currently, carbon sequestration is primarily occurring in existing forests, but these sources may not be sustainable. The outback's forests are expected to decline as conditions dry, and the gains from reduced logging in coastal forests are limited. The government’s reliance on planting billions of trees on productive agricultural land raises concerns about the impact on the agricultural sector, which could see a significant reduction in land available for crops and livestock.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese did not address the scale of reforestation needed when announcing the targets. The CSIRO modeling assumes a drastic increase in renewable energy capacity, with electricity generation projected to be 86% carbon-free by 2035 and 92% by 2050. It also anticipates that electric vehicles will make up 100% of car sales and that two-thirds of freight transport will be electrified by 2050.

Experts emphasize that achieving these targets will require rapid decarbonization of both electricity and transportation sectors. The Climate Change Authority has noted that the current pace of emissions reduction is insufficient to meet these ambitious goals.

In a broader context, the Climate Council has stated that to avoid a 2 degrees Celsius increase in global temperatures, Australia should aim for net zero by 2035. However, no country is currently on track to meet this timeline. The global landscape is complicated, with major emitters like the United States and India setting less aggressive targets.

Recent reports from the Albanese government, including a National Risk Assessment and a National Adaptation Plan, highlight the potential impacts of climate change but lack clarity on the likelihood of various warming scenarios. The government has committed $3.6 billion to adaptation measures, but experts argue this is insufficient compared to the estimated $30 billion needed.

As Australia grapples with these challenges, the implications of climate change are becoming increasingly evident. Communities are already experiencing the effects of rising temperatures and extreme weather events, raising urgent questions about the country's preparedness for future climate impacts.