A new international report indicates that Canada and other major fossil fuel-producing nations are significantly hindering global efforts to meet climate change targets. The report forecasts that fossil fuel production levels in 2030 will exceed the limits set by the Paris Agreement by more than double. While some countries are making strides toward a clean energy transition, others are reverting to outdated fossil fuel strategies.

The Production Gap Report, created by three climate research organizations, states, "The continued collective failure of governments to curb fossil fuel production and lower global emissions means that future production will need to decline more steeply to compensate." It warns that achieving these deeper reductions will be increasingly difficult and costly due to the continued investment in fossil fuel infrastructure during the 2020s.

According to the report, countries are planning to produce 120% more fossil fuels in 2030 than what is necessary to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This figure is 77% higher than what would align with a two-degree limit. The report highlights that the production gap has widened since two years ago. Coal production is projected to be 500% above the 1.5-degree pathway and 330% above the two-degree pathway. Oil and gas production are expected to be 31% and 92% higher, respectively, than what is consistent with the 1.5-degree target.

The temperature limits established in the 2015 Paris Agreement aim to prevent severe and irreversible climate impacts. The more ambitious 1.5-degree target, advocated by small island nations and supported by scientific consensus, is crucial for reducing risks associated with extreme weather, rising sea levels, and coastal flooding. However, studies suggest that this target may soon be breached, prompting scientists to call for immediate action to mitigate further warming.

Among the 20 major fossil fuel-producing countries analyzed in the report, Canada ranks fifth in planned oil production increases for 2030, following Saudi Arabia, Brazil, the United States, and Nigeria. Canada accounts for approximately 6.5% of global oil production. The report may underestimate Canada's fossil fuel output, as it is based on 2023 energy forecasts, prior to the approval of several new liquefied natural gas projects by the government.

Nichole Dusyk, a contributor to the report and senior policy adviser at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, noted that Canada is regressing on climate policies. "We're moving in the wrong direction in both fronts," she said. Prime Minister Mark Carney has repealed the consumer carbon price and paused the electric vehicle sales mandate. He has also not committed to legally binding emissions targets for 2030 and 2035, although the government maintains its goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

The future of a federal policy to cap emissions in the oil and gas sector remains uncertain. Alberta and oil industry groups have criticized the policy as a hindrance to growth and have called for its cancellation. Additionally, Alberta has frozen its industrial carbon price for 2026, while Saskatchewan has extended the operational life of its coal plants.

The report also highlights Canada's significant financial investments in fossil fuel infrastructure, including the Trans Mountain pipeline, which has cost tens of billions of dollars. "We are continuing to fuel climate change," Dusyk stated. "Canadians experience that as heat waves, floods, droughts, and wildfires. It affects the quality of life of Canadians and our economy. People pay for that in their insurance costs and the destruction of their homes and properties."

Despite the concerning findings, the report notes positive trends in clean energy technology. Solar energy, batteries, and electric vehicles are experiencing rapid deployment and decreasing production costs. The cost of renewable energy has significantly dropped in recent years, making it the most affordable option for new electricity generation in many parts of the world.