It’s a common question after an earthquake shakes the Bay Area and jolts people’s attention.

Does this mean a bigger one is coming?

Sometimes. But not usually, experts said Monday, after a 4.3 magnitude quake centered in Berkeley woke up thousands of people across the Bay Area at 2:56 a.m. early Monday morning.

“There is a small chance that this is a foreshock to something larger,” said Angie Lux, a seismologist at the Berkeley Seismology Laboratory. “But there is a less than 1%. It could happen but it is not really statistically significant.”

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the chance of a smaller quake, with a magnitude 3, occurring in the same area in the next week is 16%. The chances of another magnitude 4 are 2%. And a magnitude 5 or above? Less than 1%.

Larger earthquak

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