China has surprised climate experts by announcing a modest emissions reduction target for 2035. President Xi Jinping made the announcement during a video address to the United Nations, stating that emissions are expected to decrease by 7 to 10 percent by that year. As the world's largest emitter, responsible for nearly a third of global emissions, China's climate policies significantly impact global efforts to combat climate change.

While any reduction in emissions is seen as a step toward climate action, many experts consider China's target to be unambitious and disappointing. They argue that it falls short of what is necessary to prevent dangerous global warming. Despite this, China has been rapidly advancing its clean technology sector, leading to questions about the apparent contradiction between its targets and its capabilities.

In his UN address, Xi emphasized the importance of transitioning to green and low-carbon energy. He also subtly criticized the United States, stating, "While some countries are acting against [the trend of fighting climate change], the international community should stay focused in the right direction."

Bill Hare, CEO of the think tank Climate Analytics, expressed disappointment with China's target. He stated, "What [China] does makes a very big difference. The failure to put forward an ambitious [emissions target] at this critical moment in history on the climate change problem just can't be glossed over, I'm afraid."

Experts from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air noted that China's 2035 target could be met under current policies without any additional efforts. They suggested that a 30 percent emissions cut by 2035 would align with the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

China has a history of setting conservative targets that it can exceed. For instance, it reached its 2030 renewable energy target last year, six years ahead of schedule. There are indications that its emissions may peak this year, five years earlier than its 2030 commitment. Jorrit Gosens from ANU's Centre for Climate and Energy Policy remarked, "Everyone knows that they're going to over-achieve. I'm going to say, even in that tradition, this is a fairly soft target. It's almost stating the status quo."

Despite the low target, experts acknowledge that China remains committed to addressing climate change. Xi's pledge includes a plan to increase solar and wind capacity sixfold by 2035, reaching 3,600 gigawatts. This capacity is equivalent to that of 3,600 typical nuclear power plants. However, some analysts argue that this target is still below the current pace of renewable energy installation in China.

Muyi Yang, a senior analyst at Ember, highlighted that China installed approximately 360 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity in just one year, which is three times the total installed capacity of Australia. He emphasized the need to view China's emissions target in the context of its broader decarbonization efforts, noting that the country is transforming the world's largest power system.

Yang also indicated that the commitment to reduce emissions suggests a decline in coal-fired power generation. He stated, "China's progress is always described as more coal, more renewable. But I think that phase is very close to the end."

The Paris Agreement sets different expectations for developed and emerging nations. While China faces scrutiny for its emissions targets, the United States has taken a contrasting approach by increasing its reliance on fossil fuels. China's new target signals a commitment to decarbonization, regardless of U.S. actions.

Experts warn that the global climate landscape is unstable, with many countries, including the European Union and Australia, falling short of their climate commitments. Dr. Jorrit Gosens noted, "Everyone's commitments are falling short of two degrees centigrade."

Bill Hare expressed concern about the current state of climate action, calling it a "very dangerous moment." He emphasized the importance of the upcoming COP30 conference in Brazil, stating, "I'm not willing to call that right now."

As the world watches China's next steps, the implications of its emissions target will be closely monitored in the context of global climate efforts.