The U.S. housing market has delivered plenty of surprises in recent years, but few as puzzling as the data released for August. According to new government figures, new-home sales surged to an annualized 800,000 units last month , up sharply from July’s upwardly revised 664,000 and far above the consensus forecast of 650,000. For a sector weighed down by rising mortgage rates, stretched affordability, and a cooling labor market, the number was so startling that one leading analyst called it “implausible.”

Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, isn’t buying it. In a research note titled US New Home Sales: Outlook grim, despite August’s implausible leap in sales , Allen says the data “defies credulity” when set against the broader trends shaping housing. He fur

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