Russia is reportedly supplying military equipment and technology to China, potentially aiding Beijing in preparations for an airborne invasion of Taiwan. This information comes from an analysis of leaked Russian documents conducted by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a defense and security think tank based in the UK. The analysis is based on approximately 800 pages of documents, including contracts and equipment lists, obtained from the Black Moon hacktivist group, which has previously published some of this information online.

The documents reference meetings between Chinese and Russian officials, including visits to Moscow, and outline payment and delivery timelines for high-altitude parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles. While the authors of the RUSI report assert that the documents appear genuine, they caution that some parts may have been altered or omitted. The Associated Press has not independently verified the authenticity of these documents.

The analysis suggests that the equipment could be utilized in a potential invasion of Taiwan. Under President Xi Jinping, China has been modernizing its military with the goal of becoming a "world-class" force by 2050. High-ranking U.S. officials have indicated that Xi has ordered his military to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan as early as 2027. Beijing views Taiwan, a self-governing democracy, as a part of China and has not ruled out the use of force to reclaim the island.

Although the documents do not explicitly mention Taiwan, the RUSI analysis indicates that the military supplies would enhance China's parachuting capabilities, which are crucial for an invasion. Oleksandr Danylyuk, one of the report's authors, noted, "The Chinese school of airborne landing is very young," suggesting that Russian assistance could accelerate China's airborne program by 10 to 15 years.

The Kremlin, along with China's and Taiwan's defense and foreign ministries, did not respond to requests for comment. Danylyuk and co-author Jack Watling emphasized that the most significant benefit for China lies in the training and command procedures for parachute forces, as Russia possesses combat experience that China lacks.

The analysis also posits that Russia aims to establish itself as a military supplier to China while funding its ongoing war in Ukraine. Danylyuk speculated that Moscow might seek to involve Beijing in a conflict with Washington over Taiwan, thereby diverting U.S. attention from Russia's actions in Ukraine. Despite China's military capabilities being superior to Russia's, the report highlights gaps in China's capabilities that Russia could help fill.

According to a document dated September 2024, an initial agreement was reached in April 2021, outlining timelines for payments and deliveries. The first two stages of the agreement, which include technical specifications and equipment manufacturing, have reportedly been completed. Russia is set to provide training in China and a complete set of equipment for an airborne battalion, which includes 37 light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 amphibious anti-tank self-propelled guns, and 11 airborne armored personnel carriers, among other items. The total cost of this equipment is estimated to exceed $210 million.

Additionally, Russia has agreed to sell China high-altitude parachute systems capable of dropping up to 190 kilograms from extreme altitudes. The documents indicate that China requested testing of these systems for drops from 8,000 meters, allowing for significant gliding distances that could enable special forces to infiltrate other countries undetected.

Danylyuk suggested that the Dalnolyot system could facilitate a "stage zero" landing in Taiwan, where equipment and special forces could be deployed from aircraft outside Taiwanese airspace. Despite Russia's historical expertise in airborne operations, its recent performance in Ukraine has been criticized. In early 2022, Russian special forces failed to secure key airfields, which contributed to the prolonged conflict in Ukraine.

The report concludes that for a successful invasion of Taiwan, China would need to effectively suppress Taiwan's air defenses and deploy sufficient troops and equipment to establish dominance before Taiwan can mobilize its forces. The analysts propose that China could achieve this by airdropping armored vehicles near Taiwanese ports and airfields, allowing airborne troops to clear a path for ground forces.