A long time ago, when I taught journalism and nonfiction writing to college students, I used to do an exercise with my students a few weeks into the semester. “Look around,” I would say. “Make a note of your surroundings.”

After a minute of quiet observation, I would ask all the students to close their eyes. “Please indicate with your fingers,” I’d say, “how many windows are in this room.”

One year, 75% of the students correctly noted the one, distinctive window in our classroom. Most other years, in any space with more than one window, the average was closer to 30%.

But most terms, the average of the guesses came close to the right number. The same happens with guesses of how many jelly beans are in a jar. Individually, we get the number wrong, but collectively, we approach accuracy.

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