In 1654, the French philosopher and mathematician Blaise Pascal explained the logic of believing in God, expressed as a wager. The cost to a believer of wrongly placing faith is trivial, but the cost of disbelieving if God exists could be infinite. Therefore, Pascal argued that for a rational actor, the choice is obvious: bet on God.

Today, we face an analogous wager about the arrival of immensely capable artificial intelligence, but with a crucial difference—the evidence for AI's transformative impact is mounting daily, and the timeline in which it may occur isn't eternity but the next handful of years.

The wager is this: Either AI will radically transform work, education, corporations, and society within a short interval of time, or it won't. If we prepare for change and it doesn't mat

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