US consumers have largely avoided the inflationary impacts of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, but experts warn that the risk of price increases is growing. Since taking office for a second term in January, President Donald Trump has implemented a series of tariffs affecting both allies and adversaries. He has justified these tariffs by citing the need to generate revenue to address trade deficits and to encourage domestic manufacturing.

From January to July of this year, the US collected approximately $122 billion from tariffs, which accounts for about 2.4% of the projected federal revenue for the 2025 fiscal year. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the federal budget deficit will reach $1.9 trillion.

Economist Robert Brooks from Monash University expressed concerns about the long-term implications of increasing tariffs. "When you have these trade barriers... they become sticky and persistent and they become harder to wind back the longer that they've been in place," he said.

China currently faces the highest tariffs, with a rate of about 30% on goods entering the US. Following a brief trade conflict earlier this year, the US and China agreed to a 90-day truce to negotiate a trade deal, which was extended in August.

Brazil and India are also facing significant tariffs. The Trump administration recently doubled the tariff rate on Indian goods to 50%, citing New Delhi's purchase of Russian oil, which funds the war in Ukraine. Additionally, Brazil has been subjected to a 50% tariff, linked to the treatment of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to over 20 years in prison for plotting a coup.

Brooks noted that countries affected by these tariffs have sought to negotiate with the Trump administration. "That tit-for-tat retaliation just hasn't happened in a significant way," he said. He added that the situation with India has proven to be more complex than initially anticipated.

Concerns are also rising about the long-term effects of tariffs on North American neighbors. Currently, Canada faces a 35% tariff, while Mexico is subject to a 25% tariff on goods not covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Jared Mondschein, director of research at the United States Studies Centre, pointed out that Chinese foreign direct investment in Mexico has surged, allowing Chinese firms to circumvent trade barriers between the US and China.

The pharmaceutical industry has recently been impacted by new tariffs. Last Thursday, Trump announced a 100% tariff on imported branded or patented pharmaceutical products unless the company has begun construction on a manufacturing facility in the US. This move follows a July warning from Trump that drug manufacturers could face tariffs as high as 200% if they did not relocate production to the US.

As the administration continues to adjust its tariff policies, the potential for increased consumer prices remains a pressing concern for many experts and economists.