New Mexico State Aggies quarterback Logan Fife looks downfield for an open receiver against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, New Mexico.

The Sam Houston Bearkats (0-4, 0-1 Conference USA) visit the New Mexico State Aggies (2-2, 0-1) for a Thursday game in Las Cruces, New Mexico. The opening kickoff at Aggie Memorial Stadium will be at 9 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NCAA football odds around the Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

Sam Houston last played Sept. 20 when it lost 55-0 at the Texas Longhorns (against-the-spread loss as a +39.5). The loss marked the Bearkats' fourth in a row, all by multiple scores. SHSU has struggled on both sides of the ball; it heads into the Thursday night game ranked 133rd in the nation in total yards (268.8 per game) and 131st in total defense (483.5 average yards allowed).

New Mexico State, which has split with the Bearkats over the last 2 years, lost at the New Mexico Lobos Saturday. The Aggies (+15.5) went just 7-of-20 on third and fourth downs and were undone by 94 penalty yards in a 38-20 setback. NMSU was outscored by the Lobos 24-3 in the second half. The Aggies average 18.5 points per game (120th of 136) and allow 26.0 PPG (83rd).

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Sam Houston at New Mexico State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 5:31 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Sam Houston -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | New Mexico State +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Sam Houston -2.5 (-110) | New Mexico State +2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 53.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Sam Houston at New Mexico State picks and predictions

Prediction

New Mexico State 27, Sam Houston 24

Moneyline

No interest. PASS.

Against the spread

Sam Houston is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games, and on the road the Bearkats have lost 5 in a row ATS. New Mexico State is 12-5 ATS over its last 17 games at home.

From an advanced-analytics standpoint, NMSU has shown some marginal gains across its last couple games. Those gains have come in the passing game and overall on defense, and those two areas are the reason the Aggies are a solid play in this matchup.

SHSU lives in the same offensive-ranking neighborhood Tulsa does, and the Aggies held UT to 14 points on 375 total yards on Sept. 6. The Bearkats allow a lot of havoc plays up front and frequently gets off schedule in both the run and pass games. NMSU has been hurt by some explosive passing plays but has otherwise been a near-average squad defensively.

In this match-up, near FBS-average in a key department figures as a monster advantage. And the Aggies are 6-1 ATS over their last 7 games as a home underdog. BACK NEW MEXICO STATE +2.5 (-110).

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Over/Under

The Under has prevailed in each of the last 2 series meetings (2023-24), and last year's total was a 44.5. The Under is 5-1 across SHSU's last 6 conference games. The last 7 games when the Aggies have been tabbed as a home underdog of 5 points or less, the Under has gone 5-2.

In a more fair matchup that what each side has mostly faced so far, look for more running plays. And expect a lot of off-schedule ball and multiple punting exchanges. TAKE THE UNDER 53.5 (-110).

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Sam Houston Bearkats at New Mexico State Aggies odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Skip Snow, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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