Arthur Hayes centers Bitcoin as the primary beneficiary of what he calls an inevitable ECB money-printing cycle triggered by France’s worsening funding position, capital flight, and political stalemate.

In his Oct. 2, 2025 essay “Bastille Day,” Hayes argues that the developing fracture is not merely a euro story but a reserve-asset reshuffle that elevates BTC because it is a portable, bearer instrument outside the reach of Eurozone gatekeepers. “The slow-motion collapse of the French state is the signal that it’s time to sell euros and buy Bitcoin,” he writes, later distilling the trade into a binary: “Either the ECB presses the Brrr button now and implicitly finances the French welfare state, or it does it later when French capital controls threaten to destroy the euro. Either way, money

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