Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) celebrates with her father, Roscoe C. Wilson Jr., after the Aces defeated the Indiana Fever in the second round of the 2025 WNBA Playoffs at Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces meet for Game 1 of the best-of-7 WNBA Finals on Friday. Tip-off at Michelob Ultra Arena at Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada, is at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's WNBA odds around the Mercury vs. Aces odds and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Aces won 3-1

The Mercury defeated both participants from last season WNBA Finals in these playoffs. Phoenix topped the defending champ New York Liberty in 3 games in the first round, while ousting the Minnesota Lynx in 4 games in the semifinals round.

In the series-clinching win Sept. 28 over the Lynx, the Mercury won 86-81 to narrowly cash as a 4.5-point favorite as the Over (155) connected. Phoenix has won and covered 5 of the past 6 playoff games, while the Over has connected in 3 in a row. In Game 4 against Minnesota, F Alyssa Thomas went for 23 points, 10 assists and 8 rebounds, while hitting 11-of-18. F Satou Sabally ended up with 21 points and 6 boards, while hitting 3 triples.

In the past 5 playoff games, Thomas has posted 18 or more points, averaging 20.2 points, 9.8 assists and 9.0 rebounds per game.

The Aces nipped the Seattle Storm in 3 games in the first round, while narrowly escaping against the Indiana Fever in 5 games. In Game 5 of the Conference Finals, Las Vegas edged Indiana 107-98 in overtime, covering as an 8-point favorite as the Over (159) connected. F A'ja Wilson was hot, finishing with 35 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals and 4 blocks. G Jackie Young ended up with 32 points, 10 assists and 4 3-pointers.

Wilson was on fire in the Indiana series, averaging 24.0 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 3.2 blocks per game in the 5-game set.

These teams met 4 times in the regular season, with the Aces going 3-1 SU/ATS. The Under has cashed in 3 of 4 meetings this season, too.

Since the Aces moved from San Antonio to Las Vegas, these organizations have met inthe playoffs 2 times previously. The Mercury won in 5 games against the Aces in the 2021 Semifinals, while Las Vegas swept a first-round set against Phoenix in 2022.

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Mercury at Aces odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:34 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mercury +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Aces -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Mercury +3.5 (-115) | Aces -3.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 159.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mercury at Aces picks and predictions

Prediction

Aces 82, Mercury 76

Moneyline

If you're a bit on the conservative side, ACES (-155) straight up as moderate favorites isn't priced out of line.

The Aces did win each of the past 3 regular-season meetings, but they lost in the first meeting at Michelob ULTRA Arena. Of course, that was one of the regular-season games that Wilson missed due to injury, so that is impressive, but mostly it can be ignored, too, since the Aces are a completely different team with Wilson in or out of the lineup.

Against the spread

If you're more of a traditional bettor, back ACES -3.5 (-105) to get the job done by at least 2 buckets.

Las Vegas picked up 3 straight wins and covers against Phoenix, including an 83-61 rout on Aug. 21 as a 1.5-point favorite in the most recent matchup. The Mercury just shot 31.0% (22-of-71) in that loss, while the Aces had 5 players go for 12 or more points in a balanced effort.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 159.5 (-110) in Game 1.

The Under cashed in 3 of 4 games in the regular season, while also going low in 3 of the past 4 meetings in Las Vegas.

While the Over has hit in 3 in a row for Phoenix, the Under is still 4-3 in 7 playoff games this season. The Under has cashed in 4 of the past 6 games for the Aces, too.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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