Moldova's recent parliamentary elections resulted in a significant win for pro-Western parties, indicating a shift in the political landscape of the small Eastern European nation. Despite years of Russian efforts to destabilize Moldova, including alleged investments of hundreds of millions of euros, the Kremlin was unable to establish a pro-Russian government. This outcome suggests a decline in Moscow's influence in the region.

Moldova, bordered by Romania and Ukraine, has a population of about 2.4 million, making it one of Europe's smallest and poorest countries. The majority of Moldovans speak Romanian, and many hold dual citizenship with Romania. However, historical ties to Russia remain due to Soviet-era policies that Russified the region.

The geopolitical situation changed dramatically following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Security analysts warned that if Ukraine fell, Moldova could be next. There were concerns that Russia might install a pro-Kremlin government in Moldova, potentially using it as a launch point for attacks on Ukraine, particularly targeting the strategic port city of Odesa. These fears were heightened by the presence of Transnistria, a Russian-backed breakaway region along Moldova's eastern border, which houses around 400,000 people and hosts approximately 1,500 Russian soldiers, mostly local residents with Russian passports.

In the past, Moldova was divided between pro-European and pro-Russian factions. However, the political tide turned in 2020 when Maia Sandu, a pro-European former World Bank official, was elected president. Her party, the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), secured a parliamentary majority in 2021, promising to combat corruption, enhance judicial independence, and expedite EU membership. These moves were met with disapproval from Moscow.

In response to Moldova's westward shift, the Kremlin reportedly devised a strategy to regain control by increasing pro-Russian media presence and fostering economic dependence on Russian imports. Following the invasion of Ukraine, a leaked war map suggested Russia's intent to annex Transnistria. However, Ukraine's resilience thwarted these plans, and Moldova's government quickly applied for EU membership, further alienating Moscow.

In late 2022, Russia reduced energy exports to Moldova by one-third, leading to skyrocketing prices and inflation exceeding 30%. Many households faced utility bills consuming up to 70% of their income, sparking public discontent, particularly among pensioners nostalgic for the Soviet era. Tens of thousands protested in Chisinau, demanding new elections, a movement largely organized by Ilhor Shor, a pro-Kremlin oligarch who fled to Israel after embezzling $1 billion from the Moldovan government.

In early 2023, Moldova and Ukraine reportedly intercepted Russian plans to destabilize the Moldovan government and install a puppet regime. These plans mirrored a failed coup attempt in Montenegro in 2016, involving foreign-trained saboteurs from Serbia. As tensions rose, residents of Chisinau expressed anxiety about the political climate, with younger Moldovans generally favoring European integration.