The New England Patriots (2-2) and the Buffalo Bills (4-0) meet for Sunday Night Football at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's Patriots vs. Bills odds and tab the 5 best prop bets to win among SportsbookWire's expert NFL picks and predictions for Week 5.
The Patriots enter play with momentum after throttling the Carolina Panthers 42-13 at home last Sunday, easily covering as 5.5-point favorites as the Over (41.5) cashed. New England is also 1-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) against the AFC East Division.
Patriots QB Drake Maye completed 14-of-17 passes for 203 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs with a rushing score against the Panthers, while both rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson and veteran RB Antonio Gibson scored rushing TDs. WR Stefon Diggs racked up 101 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 7 targets, and now he gets to face his former team.
The Bills have won all 4 games to date, while going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS inside the division. The Over has cashed in 3 of 4 games for Buffalo. They're coming off a 31-19 win over the New Orleans Saints, scoring 30 or more points in all 4 games this season. RB James Cook has scored a rushing TD in all 4 games, totaling 5 scores. QB Josh Allen threw for 2 TDs, and ran for another in last Sunday's win over the Saints.
Patriots LB K'Lavon Chaisson (knee) carries a questionable tag into the game, and he is probably the biggest injury for the visitors. Meanwhile, OT Spencer Brown (calf), LB Matt Milano (pectoral) and DT Ed Oliver (ankle) each carry questionable tags into the game. Each are starters, so those are areas to watch.
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Best Patriots at Bills prop bets
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:45 p.m. ET.
Bills RB James Cook OVER 97.5 RUSHING+RECEIVING YARDS (-118)
The Patriots are actually pretty stout against the run, allowing just 405 yards through 4 games, and only 3.9 yards per attempt. They've allowed 4 TDs on the ground, so Cook's scoring streak could continue. However, as an Anytime TD Scorer (-210), you need to pay more than 2 times your return, and there is just no value there.
Instead, let's roll with Cook's total scrimmage yardage. He enters the game with 108 or more rushing yards in 3 consecutive outings, and at least 102 total scrimmage yards in all 4 games to date.
If Cook struggles on the ground against the surprisingly stout New England rush defense, he is still a weapon out of the backfield catching the ball in the flat.
Bills QB Josh Allen OVER 1.5 PASSING TDs (-140)
We have rather moderate odds for Allen to reach 2 TD strikes on SNF.
Allen, who has completed 71.7% of his pass attempts in 3 of 4 games, has also managed to throw 2 or more TDs in 3 of 4 games to date, too.
He faced the Patriots just once last season in a game during unfavorable weather in western New York, throwing for only 154 yards and 1 TD, but the weather will be mild with clear conditions. Expect at least 2 TD strikes for Allen, as he keeps up the good work.
Bills TE Dalton Kincaid ANYTIME TD SCORER (+250)
If you want much better odds for an Anytime TD Scorer, Kincaid is your guy.
We mentioned Cook (above), but his odds are way too expensive for a score. Kincaid has scored in all but 1 of his team's 4 games to date, and you can multiply up by 2 1/2 times if he finds the end zone against the Patriots.
There is risk here, as he has never scored a TD in 3 career games against the Patriots. He has 16 receptions for 177 yards in those games, and he has at least 4 receptions in each of the outings. As such, going KINCAID - OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (+135) at plus-money is also recommended.
Patriots QB Drake Maye OVER 4.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS (-160)
It's a bit on the expensive side, but Maye is worth a look for the Over on rushing attempts.
He has 4 or more rushing attempts in 3 of his 4 games, and 7 or more runs in 2 of his past 3 outings. Last season in Buffalo on Dec. 22, he ran 6 times for 30 yards.
In a head-to-head battle with Allen, he is going to want to show that the Buffalo QB isn't the only signal caller who can also do it with his legs.
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Bills PK Matt Prater OVER 7.5 POINTS (-118)
You know we're going kicker for the fifth prop. It's what we do each week. Kicking props are fun!
For Prater, he has averaged 9.3 points per game subbing in for the injured PK Tyler Bass, and he booted the game-winning field goal on SNF back in Week 1 against Baltimore.
The Patriots defense is surprisingly stout, so don't be surprised to see the Bills have to occasionally settle for field goals instead of touchdowns in the red zone. All it takes is 2 field goal makes, and Prater is golden, because you know the Bills are going to score at least 2 touchdowns.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills best prop bets for Sunday Night Football
Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire
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