Happy Uptober. Over the last 13 Octobers, Bitcoin has delivered positive returns in 10 of them, and this month it is likely to extend that streak. Over the weekend, Bitcoin crossed above $125,000 for the first time, and the current odds on Polymarket are about 60% for it to break $130,000 by Halloween. Those numbers are impressive. But more important is an emerging narrative shift around Bitcoin.

The popular case for Bitcoin is that it is hard money that can’t be deflated by political actors or central banks. When the world is going to hell economically, it makes sense to store your wealth in a scarce decentralized asset that can’t be tampered with by corporations or governments. “Bitcoin solves this,” as they say.

It’s a compelling story but, as with many great tales, it’s mostly fict

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