Tariffs. United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids. National Guard deployments. Epstein files. Strikes on Iran. Gaza and Ukraine. Sticky inflation. The first year of President Donald Trump’s time in office has been a firehose of unpopular policies, confrontational tactics, and frequent clashes with his perceived enemies.

Each of these developments has tended to trigger the same question: Will any of this matter to the voters that made up his winning coalition in 2024? Will he bleed support, fracture his coalition, and doom future Republicans? Or was 2024 a more durable realignment in American politics?

The answer isn’t as clear cut as headlines often make it out to be. There has been some slippage in support among Trump’s 2024 voting coalition, but it’s not the GOP doomsday

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