CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, delivered a dose of cold reality to Democrats who had assumed the party was on track to reclaim control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections. According to Kalshi, a closely watched prediction market, Democrats’ chances of retaking the majority have plummeted over the past six months — from 83% in April to 63% in October.

What had appeared as a “likely Democratic win in the House come next year has become much closer to a toss-up at this point, although still slightly leaning Democratic.”

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Enten noted that this sentiment is mo

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