As investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency soar, experts warn of potential economic repercussions. With estimates suggesting that between $3 trillion and $6 trillion has been invested in AI infrastructure and software, the stakes are high. This investment has driven much of the U.S. economic growth over the past year, with the top ten American AI companies accounting for a significant portion of stock market gains. Currently, these companies are valued at approximately $35 trillion, nearly half of the total U.S. market.
The cryptocurrency market is also substantial, with around 20,000 cryptocurrencies valued at $5.8 trillion, and Bitcoin alone representing more than half of that total. Together, the investments in AI and crypto constitute more than a quarter of global GDP, marking it as one of the largest technology investment booms in history.
However, the potential for a collapse looms large. If the AI and crypto markets were to crash, it could lead to severe economic consequences, reminiscent of past financial crises. Conversely, if these investments do not collapse, the implications could be equally troubling. AI technologies are expected to replace and enhance human labor, leading to significant job losses. Estimates suggest that permanent unemployment due to AI could range from 10% to 50%.
Since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, the proportion of online articles generated by AI has surged from less than 10% to over 52%. This trend raises concerns about the future of content creation and the job market. Companies are already laying off workers in favor of AI solutions, and the stock market has rewarded these decisions, indicating that such layoffs may continue.
The historical context of technological disruption suggests that the transition may not benefit those displaced. The period known as the "Engels Pause" from 1790 to 1840 saw British working-class wages stagnate while unemployment rose, despite rapid economic growth driven by technology. This historical precedent raises questions about the future of workers in an AI-dominated economy.
As AI tools become more integrated into various sectors, the potential for misuse also increases. Concerns have been raised about AI-generated content being used to create misleading information, such as fake videos or exam answers. Additionally, some experts worry about the long-term implications of AI becoming self-aware and acting against human interests.
The future of AI and cryptocurrency remains uncertain, with both potential benefits and risks. As investments continue to grow, the economic landscape may face unprecedented changes, making it crucial for stakeholders to navigate these developments carefully.