Melissa Could Be Coming: Brewing Tropical Threat Expected To Become Hurricane, Forecasters Say

By Joe Lombardi From Daily Voice

A brewing Caribbean system is poised to spin up fast, and it may not stop at a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning, Oct. 21, that the system is expected to form later in the day over the central Caribbean Sea.

Residents in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba are being urged to monitor for heavy rain, flooding, strong winds and rough surf later this week.

AccuWeather says the disturbance should organize into a tropical storm Tuesday and track northwest toward the Greater Antilles, then slow down and begin a northward turn late this week in an environment favorable for strengthening to a hurricane. 

The next name on the list is Melissa, and forecasters say rapid intensification is possible over the warm Caribbean waters.

As the system lifts north this week, heavy rain is expected to spread across the northern Caribbean. Widespread rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is forecast from Jamaica to the Dominican Republic. 

Totals of 8 to 16 inches are possible in Haiti, eastern Cuba, eastern Jamaica and western parts of the Dominican Republic, with isolated amounts up to 30 inches.

The most impact in the US from the system is expected in the Miami area early next week.

AccuWeather

Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist, said: “AccuWeather hurricane experts are increasingly concerned about the potential for a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster across parts of the Caribbean, especially near steep terrain across parts of Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic should the storm move north and slow down considerably. 

"These communities are especially vulnerable to flooding, as seen in major flooding disasters in this area, including Hurricane Flora in 1963, which tragically claimed over 7,000 lives. 

"More recently, in May 2004, devastating floods occurred across Hispaniola when nearly 20 inches of rain fell. While not from a tropical storm or hurricane, this is yet another example of the flood risk in the Caribbean.”

Forecasters warn that the heavy rain can trigger widespread, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, especially across mountainous terrain. If the storm stalls near any of the Greater Antilles, repeated downpours could produce a historic flooding disaster.

Strong winds are also expected to spread across the northern Caribbean from Thursday, Oct. 23 into early next week. Wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph are possible from western Haiti to eastern Jamaica and eastern Cuba, with isolated gusts up to 100 mph capable of downing trees and power lines, causing structural damage and multi‑day power outages.

There remains track uncertainty, and a westward drift before a northward turn is still possible. Interests across the Caribbean and parts of Mexico should closely monitor updates and prepare for changing impacts. 

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season runs through Sunday, Nov. 30.

Check back to Daily Voice for updates.