Home invasions in the Toronto area have surged, with local police reporting a doubling of incidents this year. This alarming trend has led to heightened anxiety among homeowners, particularly after several cases where individuals were charged with aggravated assault for defending themselves against armed intruders. Organized crime has recognized that violent break-ins, often carried out by hired juvenile offenders, present a profitable and low-risk opportunity.

As a result, there has been a significant increase in demand for private security services in the suburbs surrounding Canada’s largest city. The political landscape is shifting as major federal parties compete to demonstrate their commitment to law and order. Public sentiment reflects a belief that crime is on the rise, despite overall crime statistics showing a four percent decrease in 2024 and a more than 30 percent drop since its peak in 1992.

The Conservative Party has effectively positioned itself as the leading party on crime, with an Abacus poll indicating that 66 percent of Canadians trust them to handle public safety, compared to just 17 percent for the Liberals. In response, the Conservatives have introduced the Jail Not Bail Act (private member’s bill C-242), which aims to shift the focus from restraint to public protection. This proposed legislation would expand the list of serious offenses that require the accused to prove they deserve bail, including violent crimes and serious drug trafficking.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Party has also pledged to reform bail laws. Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that new legislation is expected this week, which will impose stricter penalties and make it more difficult for repeat offenders charged with serious crimes, such as home invasions and sexual assault, to obtain bail. Carney emphasized that the new rules would require these offenders to demonstrate their eligibility for bail.

While the Liberals may not be able to win the crime debate outright, this legislation could serve as a protective measure to prevent voters from turning against them. Interestingly, this move aligns the Liberals with the Conservatives in prioritizing tougher sentencing, a significant shift from their historical stance that favored restraint.

This shift can be traced back to Pierre Trudeau’s era, when then-Justice Minister John Turner introduced bail reforms aimed at safeguarding individual rights against state power. At that time, the burden of proof for bail rested with the accused. However, recent developments have altered this balance. In 2017, the Supreme Court's ruling in R v Antic reinforced the principle of restraint, emphasizing that accused individuals are presumed innocent and entitled to a constitutional right to bail. This ruling established the “ladder principle” for bail, requiring courts to explore all less restrictive options before imposing conditions.

Further codification of the principle of restraint occurred with the Trudeau government’s bill C-75 in 2018, which directed courts to consider the circumstances of Indigenous and vulnerable accused individuals. Despite these changes, judges still retain the discretion to deny bail to violent offenders, reflecting ongoing concerns about public safety.