The number of home invasions in the Toronto area has surged, doubling in the current year, according to local police. This alarming trend has led to heightened anxiety among homeowners, particularly after reports of individuals being charged with aggravated assault for defending themselves against armed intruders. Organized crime has recognized that violent break-ins, often carried out by hired juvenile offenders, present a profitable and low-risk opportunity. As a result, there has been a significant increase in demand for private security services in the suburbs surrounding Canada’s largest city.

In response to these developments, major federal political parties are competing to demonstrate their commitment to law and order. Public sentiment reflects a belief that crime is on the rise, despite overall crime statistics showing a four percent decrease in 2024 and a more than 30 percent decline since 1992. The Conservative Party has successfully positioned itself as the leading party on public safety issues, with a recent poll indicating that 66 percent of Canadians trust them to handle crime, compared to just 17 percent for the Liberals.

The Conservatives have introduced the Jail Not Bail Act, a private member’s bill aimed at shifting the focus from restraint to public protection in bail decisions. This proposed legislation would expand the list of serious offenses that require defendants to prove they deserve bail, including violent crimes and serious drug offenses.

Meanwhile, the Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, has promised to introduce bail reform legislation. Carney stated that the new measures would impose stricter conditions on repeat offenders charged with serious crimes, requiring them to demonstrate their eligibility for bail. This legislative effort is seen as a way for the Liberals to mitigate political fallout and align themselves with public safety concerns, even as they face challenges in winning voter support on this issue.

Historically, the Liberal Party has favored a more restrained approach to bail, a stance rooted in the principles established during Pierre Trudeau’s administration. In the past, reforms aimed to protect individuals from arbitrary state power, placing the onus on the Crown to justify bail denials. However, recent Supreme Court rulings have reinforced the principle of restraint, emphasizing the constitutional right to bail and the need for careful consideration of each case.

The Ontario Association of Chiefs of Police has expressed concerns that the current bail system is unbalanced, advocating for a reevaluation that prioritizes public safety. Critics of the proposed reforms warn that simply denying bail to more individuals will not resolve the underlying issues within the criminal justice system. Overcrowding in provincial correctional facilities is already a pressing concern, with some facilities operating at over 150 percent capacity. Reports indicate that a significant portion of individuals in provincial jails are awaiting trial or bail, raising questions about the fairness of the system.

As the Carney government plans to allocate an additional $1.8 billion to hire 1,000 new RCMP officers over the next four years, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain. While increased law enforcement and bail reform may address some immediate concerns, experts caution that these actions alone will not provide a comprehensive solution to the challenges facing the criminal justice system. The long-term implications of these reforms, particularly regarding recidivism and the treatment of individuals in custody, continue to be a topic of significant debate.