Neither Barnaby Joyce nor climate targets are likely to trigger a mass exodus from the Nationals, despite many members sharing their former leader's distaste for reducing carbon emissions to 'net zero' over time.

Even the most ardent critics of the climate plans are unlikely to follow Mr Joyce to the exit, including outspoken Queensland senator Matt Canavan.

"It is Nats or bust for me," he said on Wednesday.

Mr Joyce has decided not to recontest his seat of New England at the next election and has telegraphed a defection from the Nationals, citing a range of grievances including net-zero targets.

The announcement has fuelled speculation Mr Joyce could join Pauline Hanson and become a member of One Nation, and he has not ruled out such a move.

Mr Joyce's departure may have more to do w

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