Ukrainian forces have significantly damaged Russia's oil refining infrastructure since early summer, leading to widespread gasoline shortages in the country. This strategy has provided Ukraine with a crucial advantage in its ongoing conflict with Russia. However, experts suggest that Ukraine's allies should supply more long-range weapons to maintain this momentum.

The energy sector is vital to Russia, accounting for approximately 30% of federal revenues and funding the Kremlin's military efforts. Until recently, Ukraine faced challenges in targeting this sector due to technical and political limitations. Initially, Ukraine lacked the necessary weapons to conduct effective strikes deep within Russian territory. Prior to Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine's production of long-range missiles was limited, and the Biden administration was hesitant to provide such weapons, fearing an escalation of the conflict.

In response, Ukraine rapidly expanded its domestic missile production and modernized older technologies. For instance, the Ukrainian Neptune missiles, originally designed for naval attacks within a range of about 280 kilometers, were modified to strike land targets up to 1,000 kilometers away. However, long-range missiles are costly, typically priced at a minimum of $1 million each, and cannot be easily produced in large quantities during wartime.

On the other hand, Ukraine has emerged as a leader in military drone technology, deploying swarms of kamikaze drones that range from $55,000 to $300,000 each, with those used for long-range strikes being on the higher end of that scale. In early 2024, Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russian oil refineries, achieving notable success. Despite the effectiveness of these strikes, the Biden administration expressed concerns about the potential destabilization of global oil markets, fearing that reducing Russian energy exports could lead to global inflation and negatively impact President Joe Biden's reelection prospects.

This strategy was temporarily shelved, reflecting the complexities of U.S. foreign policy. However, this year, OPEC increased oil production, flooding the global market and causing prices to drop significantly. The surplus has led to some American shale oil projects facing cancellation due to unprofitability. As a result, attacking Russia's oil industry may not have the inflationary effects on American energy markets that were previously feared. In fact, any potential inflationary impacts could benefit American oil producers by stabilizing prices needed to sustain domestic operations.

The Trump administration has supported Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, with U.S. intelligence agencies providing targeting information to Ukrainian forces. While the White House has not explicitly detailed the reasons for this strategic shift, changing market conditions likely played a role. Ukraine's attacks on refineries have continued to be successful, with new strikes occurring every few days. Recent assessments indicate that at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity has been rendered inoperable.

Refineries are critical targets for Ukraine, as they represent a bottleneck in the oil industry. Their complex systems are challenging to defend and repair, particularly since they often depend on Western components. Damage from explosions and fires can take weeks or even months to repair, while gas transport pipelines can be restored in a matter of days. However, the consequences of these attacks have been uneven, impacting the broader energy landscape.