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U.S. turkey population drops to 195 million, the lowest in nearly 40 years

Avian diseases HPAI and AMPV have disrupted flocks, slowing production and supply

Prices are expected to rise about 40% from 2024, though no major holiday shortage is forecasted

Families celebrating Thanksgiving should expect to pay a little more than in previous years for their dinner spread centerpieces, as turkeys are in short supply after hundreds of thousands were affected by the multiple outbreaks of avian diseases.

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), the U.S. turkey flock has decreased to an estimated 195 million birds in 2025, marking the lowest total in roughly four decades. That level is down about 3% from 2024 and about 36% from the peak of approximately 303 millio

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