South Florida football coach Alex Golesh celebrates after the Bulls beat Florida at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

Though the Week 9 matchup between South Florida and Memphis has lost some of its luster following the Tigers' loss to UAB last week, the matchup between the No. 20 Bulls (6-1, 3-0 American) and Tigers (6-1, 2-1) on Saturday, Oct. 25, will still have plenty on the line for both programs.

Alex Golesh and USF enter the matchup as the highest-ranked Group of Five team in college football, meaning it currently holds the inside track to a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff. The Bulls have wins over then-No. 25 Boise State and then-No. 13 Florida on their resume.

A win against could put the Tigers would not only put the Bulls within striking distance of a top-15 ranking, but also further entrench them near the top of the American Conference football standings, giving them a chance to win the conference title game and get into the CFP field.

Conversely, Memphis — which last week was the highest-ranked non-power team at No. 20 — can slam the door back open to challenge for the American title, even following a gaffe against the Blazers, who were fresh off firing coach Trend Dilfer.

Here's what you need to know about what's on the line when South Florida and Memphis play on Saturday:

How South Florida-Memphis impacts Group of 5 race to CFP

The winner of this matchup is not guaranteed a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff field. But the winner would set itself up nicely to have a fighter's chance.

According to ESPN analytics, USF enters this weekend with a 45.9% chance of making the CFP field. Fellow American teams North Texas (14.7%) and Tulane (14%) place second and third, respectively. The Bulls defeated the Mean Green 63-36 on Oct. 10.

As of right now, the American Conference has the best chance of sending a representative to the CFP based on strong nonconference opponents. ESPN SP+ has five teams with between 12-24% chances of winning the conference:

  • USF (24.4%)
  • North Texas (22.6%)
  • Memphis (19.4%)
  • Navy (17.3%)
  • Tulane (12.7%)

South Florida already has top-25 wins over Boise State and Florida this season, with the latter of the two coming on the road in Gainesville, Florida. The Bulls' only loss this season is to Miami, which is currently a top-10 team.

For USF, beating Memphis and then beating undefeated Navy on Nov. 15 in Week 12 would help them position for a spot in the American Conference championship game on Friday, Dec. 5.

Meanwhile, Memphis could get itself back in the American race with a win over the Bulls, though a 31-24 loss to UAB the week it fired its coach could be hard for the Tigers to overcome. But Memphis received three votes in this week's US LBM Coaches Poll, which was tied with UNLV for seventh-best placement among Group of Five teams.

According to ESPN, Memphis entered last week's matchup against UAB with a 43% chance of making the CFP field. The odds dropped to 11% following the loss. The Tigers were No. 20 in the US LBM Coaches Poll last week.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How South Florida-Memphis game can impact Group of 5 College Football Playoff race

Reporting by Ehsan Kassim, USA TODAY NETWORK / USA TODAY

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