Brazilian farmer Andrey Rodrigues wasn’t planning to beef up soybean production for next year’s harvest until a couple of months ago, but now he’s extra hopeful.

What has him and his fellow Brazilian farmers planting more soybeans is the trade war between the Trump administration and China that has shut American soybeans out of the massive Chinese market.

"China won’t buy from the United States due to the price. Since it's more expensive there, this tariff barrier opens an opportunity for us here." said Rodrigues.

Brazil’s government said that between January and August, 77 million metric tons of soybeans were exported to China.

That represents most of the South American country's first season harvest.

During that period, China imported 17 million metric tons from the U.S., according to China’s customs data.

The number of cargo ships carrying U.S. grains and docking at a major Chinese grains port fell 56% between January and September this year over the same period the previous year, or from 72 to 32, according to a social media account of the state broadcaster China Central Television.

The number has fallen to zero since July.

By comparison, that port received an average of more than 40 cargo ships from countries such as Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay since May, and 90% of the cargo was soybeans, according to the state broadcaster’s post.

Livio Ribeiro, a partner at consultancy BRCG and a associate researcher at the IBRE Getulio Vargas Foundation think tank and university in Rio de Janeiro, says the Chinese interest in Brazilian soybeans at this time of the year is a short-term move.

As the U.S. soybean harvest begins, there's no indication that trend will be reversed.

Sowing painful problems for farmers like Kevin Cox, a soybean farmer in Brazil, Indiana.

"China’s proved that they don’t have a problem buying someplace else. Right now the idea that we are the only supplier, it’s been proven that’s not at all the case.” said Cox.

The American Soybean Association said that China’s retaliatory tariffs on top of other taxes pushed the overall duties on U.S. soybeans to 34% in 2025, which has driven the price of American soybeans well above Brazil's.

Brazil's Agriculture Ministry said last month it expected the next soybean harvest, the one that Rodrigues is planting now, to rise 3.6%, to almost 178 million metric tons in comparison with this year's.

Now government analysts are reviewing those figures as China's increased demand doesn't show signs of waning.

AP Video shot by Thiago Mostazo, Maycron Abade and Obed Lamy