A recent poll indicates that crime has overtaken affordable housing as the primary concern for residents of Toronto. This shift comes despite a decline in major crime indicators compared to last year. The public opinion survey, conducted by Liaison Strategies from October 22 to 23, involved 1,000 Torontonians. It revealed that over half of the respondents approve of Mayor Olivia Chow's performance, with municipal elections approaching in less than a year.

David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, noted that the timing of the poll coincided with significant media coverage of justice system reforms, which likely heightened public concerns about safety. According to the survey, 32% of participants identified crime as the most pressing issue, while 17% pointed to affordable housing. Other concerns included homelessness and transit, each at 12%, followed by traffic at 9% and taxes at 8%.

Despite the public's heightened fear of crime, statistics show a decrease in several crime categories. Toronto police data indicates that shootings and firearm discharges have dropped by 40%, and homicides have decreased by 51% compared to the same period last year. Additionally, car thefts and break-and-enters have fallen by 33% and 13%, respectively. However, assault rates have been steadily increasing since 2014.

The phenomenon known as the "risk-fear paradox" explains why public fear of crime can remain high even as crime rates decline. Researchers attribute this disconnect to sensational media coverage and the use of crime as a political tool by elected officials. Some city councillors have characterized crime in Toronto as rampant, contributing to public anxiety. Chow addressed this issue at a press conference, stating, "Well, embellishment, exaggeration, half truth — eh, (it’s a) free country."

Concerns about crime are particularly acute among marginalized communities, which have seen a rise in hate crimes. Valentin emphasized that while crime rhetoric can be politically advantageous, it may lead voters to question what solutions candidates can offer if crime remains a dominant issue.

In terms of the upcoming mayoral race, Chow's approval rating has increased slightly to 52%, down from a high of 70% shortly after her election in 2023. Valentin noted that Chow's approval has remained around 50% this year, which is not unusual. The poll suggests that Chow holds a slight lead over former mayor John Tory, with 38% support compared to Tory's 32%. Brad Bradford, who has announced his candidacy, garnered 11% support.

The survey also revealed that 48% of Torontonians believe the city is heading in the wrong direction, an increase from 44% in July and 40% in February. Valentin pointed out that residents can feel dissatisfied with the city's direction without necessarily blaming the mayor, as many issues fall under the jurisdiction of other government levels.

Chow's approval rating is relatively low compared to other major city mayors in the region. She ranks just above Ottawa's Mark Sutcliffe, who has a 50% approval rating, and below mayors in Windsor, Brampton, Vaughan, London, Kitchener, and Markham. When asked about Chow's handling of Premier Doug Ford's proposal to ban speed cameras, 48% of respondents approved, while 25% disapproved.

In terms of federal voting intentions, over half of Torontonians indicated they would support the Liberal Party if an election were held today, while 29% favored the Conservative Party. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.09 percentage points, accurate 19 times out of 20.