Hurricane Melissa intensified into a category five storm this week as it moved from the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean, approaching Jamaica. The storm encountered water temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius, which fueled its rapid development. According to Climate Central, the waters Melissa traversed were, on average, 1.4 degrees Celsius warmer due to human-induced climate change.
Kristina Dahl, a scientist at Climate Central, described Hurricane Melissa as "absolutely historic," noting that it will likely be recorded as one of the strongest storms in the Atlantic. "It's also very clear that this storm bears the fingerprints of climate change," she said. Dahl explained that the warmer waters contributed significantly to the storm's strength.
As Hurricane Melissa approached Jamaica, it moved slowly, allowing it to gain power. It experienced extreme rapid intensification, increasing its wind speed by 111 kilometers per hour in just 24 hours, which is double the typical threshold for such rapid growth. Dahl remarked, "We see more and more hurricanes undergoing rapid intensification as the climate warms."
The World Meteorological Organization has dubbed Hurricane Melissa the "storm of the century." The storm defied three meteorological conditions that typically weaken hurricanes. Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, noted that Melissa showed signs of a potential eye wall collapse but never weakened. He added that the storm was unaffected by the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, which usually disrupts hurricane strength.
Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica as a category five storm, with winds reaching up to 225 kilometers per hour. However, it weakened to a category three storm after crossing the island quickly. Kevin Trenberth, an atmospheric scientist, explained that the cold water usually dragged up by a storm to weaken it was not as effective in this case due to overall warmer ocean temperatures.
Trenberth highlighted that climate change is causing tropical cyclones to become more intense, resulting in higher wind speeds and heavier rainfall. He stated, "For every degree Celsius of warming, there's about 7 percent more moisture that the atmosphere can hold." He estimated that there is about 10 to 15 percent more moisture in the atmosphere in the region affected by Melissa.
The extent of the damage in Jamaica is still being assessed, but Trenberth indicated that the country likely experienced significant rainfall. He noted that the quick passage of the hurricane over the island helped limit its impacts.
Dr. Trenberth also pointed out that storms like Melissa are developing more rapidly than in the past. "They've developed quite rapidly and much more so than in the more distant past," he said. Despite the increasing intensity of tropical cyclones, advancements in tracking and predicting these storms have improved, leading to fewer fatalities and less damage.
Dahl emphasized the importance of resilience in the face of extreme weather. "As we think about how we are going to cope with more extreme weather in the coming years, we have to think about the fact that we can be exposed to a hazard, but we can actually prevent disasters by building our resilience over time," she said. "We'll never perfectly prevent all disasters from happening, but there are things that we can do to try to lessen the impact of monster storms like this."

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