States are preparing for the possibility of a rapid shift in the cost of Obamacare health plans, depending on whether Congress extends the subsidies that are at the center of the federal government shutdown.

No matter what Congress does, the amount insurers charge for coverage sold on the marketplaces created by the Affordable Care Act will increase by an average of 26% in 2026, according to KFF, a health research nonprofit. In the 30 states that use the federal Healthcare.gov, premiums will rise by an average of 30%. In the states that run their own marketplaces, the average increase will be about 17%.

But 22 million of the 24 million people who are enrolled in marketplace plans receive a tax credit. If Congress extends the credits, the amount subsidized enrollees pay each month won’t s

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