Off-year elections are often a referendum on the president and his party. And this year, of course, that means President Trump and Republicans. Trump is unpopular, particularly with independents, who will be key in swing districts in next year's midterm elections.

So the narratives and the margins coming out of the Nov. 4 elections will matter — and offer some clues as to how the landscape for 2026 begins to take shape.

Here are five questions to consider when thinking about Tuesday's elections:

1. How much of a drag is Trump?

Republicans lost 40 House seats during Trump's first midterm in 2018. Just before that election, Trump's approval rating, according to Gallup, was 40 %.

Now, it's an almost identical 41 %.

Democrats have certainly been trying to use Trump a lot in the 2025

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