In the recent Northern Cyprus presidential election, an overwhelming majority of the Turkish Cypriot electorate rejected incumbent Ersin Tatar, backed by the Turkish government, and his hard-line two-state rhetoric.

Opposition leader Tufan Erhürman’s landslide victory has revived hopes for a settlement on the divided island.

Cyprus is an independent country and a member of both the United Nations and the European Union. But it’s divided, with the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus in the south and a self-declared state in the north, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Turkey.

A two-state solution calls for the island to remain divided between Greek Cypriots in the south and Turkish Cypriots in the north instead of reunifying.

This division was the result of Turkey’s 1974 invasion of Cyprus that followed a coup orchestrated by the Greek junta aimed at uniting the island with Greece. Turkey intervened, ostensibly to protect the Turkish Cypriot minority.

Decisive mandate

For the first time, a national leader openly embracing the UN’s model of a bi-communal, bi-zonal federation has secured a decisive mandate — almost 63 per cent of the vote in the first round of the election and majority support in every electoral district.

Erhürman represents the social-democratic and pro-unification tradition of the Republican Turkish Party (CTP). His platform focuses on rebuilding co-operation between the north and south and re-engaging the EU in a peace process to create a shared federation with a rotating presidency and equal political rights. It builds on decades of UN reunification efforts.

I have previously argued that Cypriot hopes for unification were on life support, but not doomed. That assessment still holds today now that there’s the first real chance in years to restart a meaningful process of reconciliation. The question is whether the Republic of Cyprus is willing to seize this opportunity or retreat once again into comfortable inaction.

This will determine whether Cyprus finally begins to heal the divisions that have endured since the Turkish invasion.

Read more: Cypriot hopes for unification are on life support, but not doomed

Why this moment matters

Despite his carefully crafted campaign messages, Erhürman’s victory is a direct challenge to Turkey’s hold on North Cyprus — in particular its growing political, military and economic control.

It also comes as Devlet Bahçeli, leader of Turkey’s ultra-nationalist MHP and coalition partner to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, called for Northern Cyprus to be absorbed by Turkey within days of the vote.

The outburst revealed anxiety in Turkey: a pro-federation leadership in Lefkoşa — the Turkish Cypriot part of the city of Nicosia — could loosen the grip Turkey built through subsidies, security dependency and crony networks.

Yet the far greater uncertainty lies in the south.

The south’s long drift since 2004

In the referendum on the UN-brokered Annan Plan that would have allowed a united Cyprus to enter the European Union in 2004, 65 per cent of Turkish Cypriots voted in favour of reunification, while three-quarters of Greek Cypriots rejected it.

The Republic of Cyprus joined the EU a week later while the acquis communautaire — the full body of European Union rules and obligations — was suspended in the north.

The failure of the plan deflated Turkish Cypriots’ EU aspirations and ushered in an era of isolation during which the south’s political class no longer felt compelled to compromise.

In the two decades since, successive governments in Nicosia in the south have proclaimed support for a federal solution but acted as stewards of an ethno-national enclave with elites profiting from state-granted privileges, real-estate speculation and now-discredited “golden passport” schemes.

The oligarchic patronage that flourished under that system rewarded partition rather than reconciliation. Opportunities to move the process forward — most notably, talks in 2017 — were squandered.

For many in the south, the “Cyprus problem” is primarily a question of occupation; for many in the north, it’s about political equality and security.

The real test: Political will

For reunification talks to restart, the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus must do more than verbally welcome the election outcome. It must take positive action.

That means endorsing UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s proposal to resume negotiations “within the agreed UN framework” and engaging swiftly with measures like electricity interconnection, joint search-and-rescue co-ordination and cultural-heritage restoration.

These types initiatives — part of a power-sharing model in which divided communities share government through guaranteed representation, mutual vetoes and a degree of autonomy — are already working across the Cyprus buffer zone. That’s where the two communities have been co-operating on issues like the recovery and identification of victims of the 1974 war, basic infrastructure projects and the opening of crossing points at what used to be an impenetrable border.

But the Greek Cypriot leadership faces domestic constraints: a parliament where nearly half the parties oppose federation outright and voters have been conditioned to equate compromise with betrayal. Change will require moral and political courage — something no Cypriot president since Tassos Papadopoulos’s rejection of the Annan Plan has demonstrated.

Global significance

Cyprus represents far more than a local dispute. The island lies at the crossroads of eastern Mediterranean energy routes and has played a role in the tensions in NATO’s southern flank and the fraught relationship between the EU and Turkey.

Erol Kaymak, a Turkish Cypriot international relations expert, has argued that a revived peace process would open the door to co-operation on offshore energy and maritime boundaries, issues that increasingly affect regional stability.

He also points out that continued partition entrenches Turkey’s military presence and sustains a grey-zone economy vulnerable to corruption and organized crime.

For the international community, Cyprus offers lessons in peacebuilding: can outside entities promote post-conflict power-sharing and justice when one side depends more on the other? The Canadian UNFICYP — the UN peacekeeping force in Cyprus — has experience in facilitating precisely such co-operation.

Last opportunity?

Erhürman’s election is a remarkable assertion of autonomy by Turkish Cypriot voters who have endured decades of isolation from the international community.

But unless the Greek Cypriot political officials respond with a genuine initiative for talks, the window could close quickly. Erdoğan’s government is already signalling it will not tolerate any divergence of Turkish Cypriot policies from Turkey’s.

The election may be the last chance for Cypriots on both sides to build trust-based institutions, eliminate the need for external guarantors and troops and restore the island as a common home for all.

This requires perseverance, creativity and imagination. Officials need to look not just at what’s worked in the Cyprus peace process but also at power-sharing lessons from Northern Ireland and other places where inclusive coalitions helped stabilize divided societies.

It’s essential to strengthen co-operation and foster closer ties that can gradually erode mutual distance and suspicion. These efforts could make any future settlement easier to implement and could lay the groundwork for a more stable and mutually beneficial co-existence.

However Cypriots choose to share their island, this could be their last chance to ensure the many barricades that have divided them for more than 50 years are finally dismantled.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Spyros A. Sofos, Simon Fraser University

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Spyros A. Sofos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.