New York City is set to elect its next mayor on November 4, 2025, with Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani emerging as the front-runner. As the election approaches, a recent poll indicates that nearly a million New Yorkers are contemplating leaving the city if Mamdani wins. The poll, conducted by J.L. Partners, reveals that about 765,000 residents would "definitely" leave, while an additional 2.12 million are considering it. This potential exodus could have significant economic implications for the city, particularly affecting its tax base, which relies heavily on high earners.

Mamdani, 34, has gained traction in the race, leading former Governor Andrew Cuomo by a substantial margin in the polls. His campaign focuses on progressive policies, including increased taxation on the wealthy, rent freezes, and universal childcare. However, these proposals have raised concerns among affluent residents, many of whom fear for their financial stability under a Mamdani administration. Polling shows that 12% of voters aged 50 to 64, a demographic with considerable wealth, would definitely leave, while 33% are considering it.

The sentiment against Mamdani is particularly strong among high earners, with 7% of those making over $250,000 annually stating they would definitely depart. Staten Island has the highest percentage of residents considering leaving at 21%, followed by Brooklyn and Manhattan. The potential loss of wealthy residents could lead to a decline in property values and a decrease in demand for luxury housing, further straining the city’s economy.

Mamdani's campaign has received endorsements from prominent figures, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders, and he has been praised by former President Barack Obama, who called his campaign "impressive." However, Mamdani's policies have drawn criticism from opponents, including Donald Trump, who has publicly endorsed Cuomo and warned that a Mamdani victory would lead to economic disaster for the city.

As New Yorkers head to the polls, the stakes are high. The election not only reflects the city's political landscape but also its economic future. With early voting already showing strong turnout, the outcome of this election could reshape New York City for years to come. Voters are faced with a choice between Mamdani's progressive vision and the more traditional approach represented by Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, who is also vying for a share of the anti-Mamdani vote. The election results will be closely watched, as they may signal broader trends in American politics and governance.