The Braves didn’t do much at the 2025 Trade Deadline, for good reason: their season had already gone off the rails by late July. One they did do, with an eye for 2026: trade for Rockies reliever Tyler Kinley, whose services came with a $5.5 million option for the following season. Well, it turns out that whether Kinley returns to help the Braves in 2026 is more up in the air now than before:

On the surface, it’s bizarre or shocking or some other similar adjective. Before the trade, Kinley had a 118/96/113 line for the Rockies (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) — and remember, those numbers are park-adjusted. After the trade, his results were pretty neat, with a 17 ERA- and 68 FIP-. That seemed like giving up $5.5 million to pitch in relief in 2026 was close to a slam dunk…

…except…

He had a 106 xFIP-.

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