A “For Sale” real estate sign in Mississauga. Photo by Peter J. Thompson/National Post/Postmedia files

With United States President Donald Trump’s tariff policy still fogging up Canada’s economic outlook , mortgage rates remain in a two-year downtrend.

And yet, despite the Bank of Canada’s “preferred” inflation gauge sitting at a still-naughty 3.15 per cent, “upward (inflation) momentum has dissipated,” insisted Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem on Thursday. If he’s right — and that’s extremely TBD — it implies less upside rate risk in 2026.

That said, core inflation’s stubborn refusal to hit the two-per-cent target is a glaring reason why Macklem is hinting that rate cuts may be done for a while.

As for the bond market, it concurs. Forward rates, as tracked by CanDeal

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