Drought increases, relief late in November?

So far, November has gotten off to a dry start around the ArkLaTex. It's been more than a week since most of the area has seen measurable rainfall.

The newest Drought Monitor was released today and shows an increase in drought conditions over mainly the western half of the area. You can compare last week's Drought Monitor with this week's above.

It could be a while before we see some beneficial rainfall. Models continue to show that 10-day rainfall across the area will probably be less than 1/4". It could be more than two weeks before this pattern changes. The good news is that the latest run of the 45-day EPS ensembles shows that we should see an uptick in rain across our area during the last half of November and early December.

You can see that rainfall potential is looking pretty uni