CNN's Harry Enten forecasts "pain for the Republican Party" in next year's midterm elections based on this week's Democratic wins.

Democrats notched blowout wins in the New Jersey and Virginia governors' races, in addition to pickups in races across the country, but Republican Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) downplayed those gains as unsurprising, saying those wins were just as expected as Alabama electing a GOP governor.

"I disagree entirely," Enten said, comparing Scalise to a famous cartoon meme. "I think that the house is on fire and he's like the dog saying, 'This is fine.' Take a look at this: It's all about the margins, baby. Look, Democratic candidates' margins in 2024, in New Jersey, Kamala Harris won by six. What happened on Tuesday? Well, right now Mikie Sherrill is ahead by 13 – that might be 14 very quickly. We're talking about a shift of at least seven points, upwards of eight. How about in Virginia? We had Kamala Harris winning by six. What do we have? Abigail Spanberger winning by winning by 15. We're talking about a shift of about nine points."

"If we had, let's say, an average eight-point shift across the board in all the different House seats from the 2024 result to then what happened in the 2026 House elections, you would be talking about a Democratic gain of about 20 seats, depending on redistricting," Enten added. "So when I see those results on Tuesday night, I see these giant, these huge shifts in the Democratic direction. I say Republican leaders wake the heck up and have some of what I'm having, because this is a major warning sign."

Tuesday's contests were not an outlier to other trends since the 2024 election, according to the data analyst.

"Those are not the only signs – when voters vote, Democrats do well," Enten said. "I mean, just take a look at the House, special elections. Take a look here: The 2025 House special elections. Look at those in which Democrats outran Kamala Harris. There have been five House special elections so far this year, [and] in every single one of them across the board, Virginia, Texas 18. That was on Tuesday night. Florida 6, Florida 1, Arizona 7 – from blue districts like Arizona 7 to red districts like Florida 1 and 6. What we are seeing are clear shift towards the Democratic candidates in all five of them, and we're talking about shifts on average of about or north of 15 percentage points from the 2024 presidential baseline, which is even larger than the shifts that we saw in both Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday night."

Historical trends show parties that outperform their presidential election results in subsequent special elections go on to win the House majority in the following midterm cycle, Enten said, and that's exactly what Democrats have done since losing the White House and both congressional majorities last November.

"Yes, New York, New Jersey, Virginia – yes, these are [a] blue city in New York City, yes, the blue states in Virginia and New Jersey," Enten said. "But historically speaking, when you sweep all three, you go back since the FDR administration, guess what? The Democrats, when they sweep all three, go on to win the House five out of five times. So it's a special elections. It's New Jersey, New York City, Virginia, all those put together."

"Yes, it is a year from now, but all those put together usually forecasts pain for the Republican Party come the midterm elections," Enten added. "If I'm Steve Scalise, I am not dismissing these results. I'm going to try and get myself some fire insurance."

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