Gabriel Bonfim (red gloves) reacts after his fight against Ange Loosa (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

In a 5-round welterweight bout in the main event, Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 264 -- also known as UFC Vegas 111 and UFC on ESPN+ 122 -- at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 264: Bonfim vs. Brown odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.

Records: Bonfim (18-1-0) | Brown (20-6-0)

Bonfim takes the walk to the octagon at a severe disadvantage. Brown holds a 5.5-inch reach advantage, and the difference in significant strikes landed per minute is negligible. Bonfim has a 4.54 mark in the category, while Brown checks in at 4.47. Brown is slightly more accurate on those strikes at 50.98%, to 46.76% for the Brazilian fighter.

On takedown average, Bonfim posted a 4.03 mark, while the Jamaican fighter has managed just a 0.79 mark in that category. Bonfim has a 55.56% takedown accuracy rate, compared to 39.29% for Brown. In submission average, Bonfim sits at 1.61, while Brown is at just 0.57.

The 28-year-old Bonfim is trying to position himself for a championship shot one day. He has won 3 in a row since a Round 2 KO/TKO loss to Nicolas Dalby, including a split-decision win over Stephen Thompson last time out. He has also gone the distance twice in his past 3 bouts.

For Brown, he won via Round 2 KO/TKO against Dalby, bouncing back from a split-decision loss to Bryan Battle at UFC 310. He has also ended up going the distance twice in the past 3 outings.

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UFC Fight Night 264: Bonfim vs. Brown odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Bonfim -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Brown +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Total rounds: 2.5 rounds (Over -135 | Under +100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +200 | No -295)

UFC Fight Night 264: Bonfim vs. Brown picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Backing BROWN (+140) at plus-money is worth a look on the 2-way line. He'll use that near half-foot reach advantage to push and pull Bonfim out, keeping him at a distance. As long as Brown can keep this fight toe-to-toe, and avoid going to the ground, he'll be OK.

If you're a little more adventurous, backing BROWN BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+500) for the chance to multiply up by 5 times is the way to go. Again, both fighters have gone the distance twice in the past 3 outings.

Over/Under

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-135) is a strong play if you’re not feeling the distance prop but want some action on the total. As long as this one makes it past the midway point of Round 3, you’ll be in the money.

YES (+200): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a strong play for the chance to double up, and you don't have to declare a winner. With Bonfim's good work on takedowns and submissions, you need to hope Brown can keep the fight as a toe-to-toe brawl.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UFC Fight Night 264: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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