Chicago is about to end 2025 with fewer homicides than any year since 1965 when we had 395. With 360 homicides through October , per Chicago Police Department numbers, we likely won’t beat that 1965 number, but we should end up with a total in the low 400s. That’s great news.

But celebration should come with caution: We’ve been here before. Twenty years ago, in 2004, Chicago’s homicides totaled 448, just slightly above this year’s level. That was a big decline over the years since 1992 when we had 940. Not as dramatic as New York City’s decline from more than 2,020 to 570 in that same period but at a slower pace — we were on the same declining track.

The problem is that in Chicago, unlike New York and many other cities, the decline in violence leveled off. Total homicides stayed in the

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