Nate Silver : “Once the shutdown began on Oct. 1, I disagreed with the conventional wisdom that Democrats were ‘winning’ it. True, polls found that a slight plurality of voters blamed Republicans rather than Democrats. But those same polls showed that voters didn’t understand why there was a shutdown in the first place, and that Democrats’ message on health care wasn’t breaking through. Moreover, Democrats’ advantage on the ‘blame’ question was eroding over time — while Trump’s approval rating actually improved initially once the shutdown began.”

“Then something changed — and I was getting ready to eat crow. Late last month, Trump’s numbers began to plummet, with his net approval rating falling from −7.5 on Oct. 17 to −13 three weeks later. It wasn’t a huge shift in absolute terms. But T

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