The weekend cold blast and lake-effect snow might have you thinking we have started Michigan’s constant winter. It’s not the case. The long-range data shows a flip to slightly warmer than normal weather coming.

First, I have to put into perspective what “warmer than normal” is for this time of year. I also want to emphasize it’s going to be warmer than normal, but not what most Michiganders would call warm.

Here’s the long-term average high temperature for November 17.

Let’s call the mid-November high temperature normally in the mid-to-high 40s over the southern half of Lower Michigan. Northern Lower Michigan has long-term average highs in the low-40s, and the Upper Peninsula is in the high-30s.

Watch the upper-air pattern go from a deep, cold storm over us now to a southwest flow and

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