Sergey Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister for nearly two decades, has not been seen in public for three weeks, raising questions about his status within the Kremlin. At 75, Lavrov has been a key ally of President Vladimir Putin since he took office in 2004. His absence from significant events, including a recent security council meeting where Putin ordered military preparations for nuclear testing, has fueled speculation about his relationship with the president.

The Kremlin has not provided an explanation for Lavrov's absence. Reports suggest he missed the security council meeting "by agreement." Additionally, he did not attend the ASEAN meeting in Kuala Lumpur last month and will not be part of Russia's delegation at the upcoming G20 summit in South Africa, where he has been a regular participant for the past three years.

Former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, who resigned in protest of the invasion of Ukraine, commented on the situation. "These rumors about Lavrov, that he fell out of favor with Putin, they may be substantiated, and they may be not," he said. Bondarev described Lavrov as a "reasonable guy" and noted his deep roots in Russian foreign affairs, suggesting it would be difficult to remove him from his position.

Changes in the Kremlin are not unprecedented. Last year, Putin dismissed his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who had held the position since 2012. However, Shoigu remains in a senior government role. Lavrov's prominence has increased since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has isolated Putin on the international stage. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023, further elevating Lavrov's role as he stepped in for the president at diplomatic events.

Nikolai Petrov, a senior fellow and expert in Russian politics, stated that Lavrov is a significant figure in Russian political circles but primarily acts as an implementer of Putin's decisions. Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesperson, has denied reports that Lavrov has been sidelined.

Analysts have speculated that Lavrov's absence may be linked to a tense phone call with U.S. Senator Marco Rubio on October 20. Following that call, President Trump indicated that a planned meeting with Putin could be a "waste of time," leading to speculation that Lavrov's handling of the conversation may have displeased the Kremlin. Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the foreign ministry, dismissed the reports as fictional.

Despite the rumors, Bondarev expressed skepticism about Lavrov mishandling the call, emphasizing his long-standing loyalty to Putin. "He was taught that whatever the big boss says, you must do it," Bondarev said. Luke March, a professor of post-Soviet studies, echoed this sentiment, suggesting it is unlikely Lavrov deviated from the Kremlin's official stance during the call.

As the war in Ukraine continues, Lavrov's last public appearance was in late October. Although state media have published interviews featuring him, the content is often outdated, with no recent photographs. March noted that the timing of these reports is often unclear, suggesting an attempt to divert attention from Lavrov's absence.

While Putin is known for eliminating his enemies, analysts believe that loyal allies like Lavrov are treated differently. March stated, "What we know about Putin is he respects loyalty; it's one of his key values." He added that if something were to happen to Lavrov, it would likely not involve violent retribution.