Traders on the prediction market Kalshi are showing little confidence that Americans will see new stimulus checks, putting the odds of so-called "tariff rebate" payments at just 5% heading into the end of the year.

That’s down from about 13.4% earlier this month, reflecting fading expectations for any government payouts tied to tariff revenue. The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, sits a little over $451,000.

Kalshi lets users bet real money on everything from politics and economic policy to sports and pop culture, transforming public sentiment into tradable market odds.

President Donald Trump has previously said that tariff revenue could be used to fund $2,000 checks for Americans and help reduce the nation’s $38 trillion debt .

The bearish out

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