Rural America’s farm economy is struggling with its own K shape, as government payouts rocket to crisis levels

The letter K has become popular lately when describing a U.S. economy where the wealthiest Americans are thriving while everyone else is struggling to survive.

But another K shape has gripped the farm economy: costs continue to march higher while prices for crops have plunged.

Crop prices surged during the pandemic, then tumbled from 2022 through 2024 and regained only a modest amount of ground this year. But costs didn’t come down, and President Donald Trump’s trade war prompted China to stop buying U.S. soybeans.

The trends converged into a “perfect storm” this year, but date back to the middle of the last decade, according to Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

In a note last week, Yaros pointed out that for years, the crop prices farmers receive haven’t been kee